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Abstract This study evaluates a hypothesis for the role of vertical wind shear in deep convection initiation (DCI) that was introduced in Part I by examining behavior of a series of numerical simulations. The hypothesis states, “Initial moist updrafts that exceed a width and shear threshold will ‘root’ within a progressively deeper steering current with time, increase their low-level cloud-relative flow and inflow, widen, and subsequently reduce their susceptibility to entrainment-driven dilution, evolving toward a quasi-steady self-sustaining state.” A theoretical model that embodied key elements of the hypothesis was developed in Part I, and the behavior of this model was explored within a multidimensional environmental parameter space. Remarkably similar behavior is evident in the simulations studied here to that of the theoretical model, both in terms of the temporal evolution of DCI and in the sensitivity of DCI to environmental parameters. Notably, both the simulations and theoretical model experience a bifurcation in outcomes, whereby nascent clouds that are narrower than a given initial radiusR₀threshold quickly decay and those above theR₀threshold undergo DCI. An important assumption in the theoretical model, which states that the cloud-relative flow of the background environmentV_CRdetermines cloud radiusR, is scrutinized in the simulations. It is shown that storm-induced inflow is small relative toV_CRbeyond a few kilometers from the updraft edge, andV_CRtherefore plays a predominant role in transporting conditionally unstable air to the updraft. Thus, the critical role ofV_CRin determiningRis validated. 

Abstract This article introduces a novel hypothesis for the role of vertical wind shear (“shear”) in deep convection initiation (DCI). In this hypothesis, initial moist updrafts that exceed a width and shear threshold will “root” within a progressively deeper steering current with time, increase their low-level cloud-relative flow and inflow, widen, and subsequently reduce their susceptibility to entrainment-driven dilution, evolving toward a quasi-steady self-sustaining state. In contrast, initial updrafts that do not exceed the aforementioned thresholds experience suppressed growth by shear-induced downward pressure gradient accelerations, will not root in a deep-enough steering current to increase their inflow, will narrow with time, and will succumb to entrainment-driven dilution. In the latter case, an externally driven lifting mechanism is required to sustain deep convection, and deep convection will not persist in the absence of such lifting mechanism. A theoretical model is developed from the equations of motion to further explore this hypothesis. The model indicates that shear generally suppresses DCI, raising the initial subcloud updraft width that is necessary for it to occur. However, there is a pronounced bifurcation in updraft growth in the model after the onset of convection. Sufficiently wide initial updrafts grow and eventually achieve a steady state. In contrast, insufficiently wide initial updrafts shrink with time and eventually decay completely without external support. A sharp initial updraft radius threshold discriminates between these two outcomes. Thus, consistent with our hypothesis and observations, shear inhibits DCI in some situations, but facilitates it in others.